A government in crisis

So we had the most unpredictable outcome happen with Germany's government. Though for many this has come as a surprise but to be honest I suspected this would happen! What drew me to this conclusion was how this election had come to be and also because of the type of politician Schröder is. First, the reason that nationally the Social Democrats had been losing so much political support was due to reforms that Schröder was trying to make with the government that was similar to what Clinton had done in the 1990s. Mostly Moderate reforms that aimed at trimming the welfare state and creating more freedom for businesses, at the same time trying to keep in place the protections for workers and the other popular features of the welfare state. One example is the policy Hart IV, this limits the amount of time and money people get for unemployment. This has been very unpopular with many of the leftists in Germany. These moderate reforms ate in Schröder's left wing of the SPD, who then defected to the Die Linke.PDS- the former communists in the Ost Deutschland, and for this election and SPDers like Oskar LaFontaine- who was originally a minister in Schröder's government in 1998. So Schröder saw much of his solid base eaten away from the left. In America it is extremely hard to see this defection from the main party because most people assume that support for the third party candidate is a waste and rarely noticed. That had pretty much cost Schröder to govern effectively. So that is political problem that Schröder faced. Everyone had written Schröder off as the hasbeen who had no chance of winning. But Schöder is a cunning politician and saw what he needed to gain support and win his share that gave him the most plausible chance of winning and staying as Kanzler.
So how did he do it? Good question and like any good political discussion it is ever debateable and wide open to interpretation. And so here is my opinion: He struck the fiery populist chord in rhetoric to drain support from his leftist and raise doubt in his main opponent Merkel, all the while surprising his opponents by moving elections up a year. Something that has rarely been done and stunned his opponents- catching them off-guard and unprepared. A brillant gamble in my opinion. Why give the CDU's Angela Merkel- an untested politician who definitely withered under the spotlight- a year to test out her one-liners on her way to a sweeping victory? This might have been quite unfair for Angela Merkel considering the very complicated relationships she would have to manage in her own party (zum beispiel: Edmund Stoiber the CSU chairman in Bavaria and candidate that lost to Schröder in 2002, who also has a pretty big mouth), and in her coalition with the FDP. All this and she still would have to sound out a vision that would be appealing to Germans that would be a real change from what the current social market system of Germany's economy. Schröder took advantage of Merkel's platform that was mostly an accerleration of the very programs that Schröder had proposed. He effectively raised doubt about what she would do with CDU and their coalition partners the FDP- whom I wrote about previously- and the more market-oriented policies. So Schröder forced the question, will it be worth it? The answer is unclear as what to do. Was it right for Schröder to force this early election? In a year's time the answer for the right direction might have been clearer. But politics is hardball and Schröder has shown he is the hardest of the players. whether it was entirely fair or not, that is not the question. For Merkel, a leader who is worthy of leading Germany through these dire times will need the strength to do the impossible. If she was not able to make this almost sure-win election become a clear mandate for her coalition then she had failed the tests that an election provides for the candidates- their endurance, their ability to forge strong coalitions and provide the voters with a clear vision for the future under their leadership. The same thing could have been easily said for John Kerry in 2004.
From this point on the questions are abound on what happens next. The election has no clear winner- some papers have listed the winners are losers. That is very true. Merkel or Schröder, whoever wins this next phase of wrangling between the parties will not have much of a majority or mandate in the Bundestag. Possibilities for coalitions to form this next government right now do not seem to be many. The parties will need to settle the matter before Oktober when the newly formed government first meets to select the Kanzler or Kanzlerin. The old coalition between Schröder's SPD and the Grün party is most definitely out, Merkel's CDU and the FDP don't have enough votes to form a government (despite the FDP's surprisingly strong showing), and neither party wants to touch the LinksPartei.PDS (everyone has said that they would not form a government with even though they pulled 8%, as much as the Grün.) So a more interesting part has come upon Germany- it is possible that no government can be formed and another election will have to take place at the end of the year.
So very interesting, and so very important. Germany is the biggest economy in Europe, but has been suffering the worst economic slowdown in europe. The voters are not sure where to go and that is evidenced by the election and its very divided outcome. It is up to the leaders to make those compromises or those concessions to form a functioning government. Then it is up to Merkel or Schröder to finally to give those voters real direction.